EDITION 040FRI 9 OCT 2026 · 12:45 DUBLINREGIME: RISK-OFFVERDICT MODE
Today's Move
Stocks fell a second day as the 10-year held near 5.2–5.3%, 24-year highs, and Fed Governor Waller said more hikes are likely — Hold what's on and Do nothing new; the price feed is blocked again, so there is no radar.
Thursday: early trading showed the Dow −0.4% (−181 pts), S&P 500 −0.4%, Nasdaq −0.5%, a second down day as the AI trade stumbled and oil rose; final closes not confirmed. Jobless claims were 197,000, just under the 200,000 consensus. Waller said more rate hikes will likely be needed, with "flexibility" on pace. Plan: Hold; Do nothing new while the 10-year sits above 5%.No price refresh landed today — Yahoo is blocked from this environment (HTTP 403), so the Buy Zone Radar is unavailable.
Big Picture RegimeUnchanged
RISK-OFF holds. The 10-year was reported at 5.32% earlier in the week and 5.227% (−5 bps) later on Thursday per CNBC's live blog; the 30-year auction was weaker than Wednesday's 10-year sale (Wells Fargo). The term premium, the extra pay investors demand for holding long bonds, is at its highest since 2014 (New York Fed model). Brent, dollar index and Bitcoin: — (no verified reading today).
What it means: RISK-ON needs yields falling away from their highs and a calmer dollar. Yields eased a little Thursday; that is not a turn. Not yet.
Trends: Now & Next Where the money is going
NOW · Long bonds set the price of everythingMatters · Regime
Yields at 24-year highs and a record-high-ish term premium squeeze stock valuations. Hold; Add only at a zone once prices return.
NOW · AI trade wobblingWatch
Nasdaq and S&P fell a second day on an AI-led stumble (Yahoo Finance, CNBC headlines). One headline, not yet a trend. Watch the Nasdaq; Do nothing until it breaks a pattern.
NEXT · Bank earnings + CPI, 13–14 OctCatalyst
JPMorgan, Citi, Goldman report Tue 13 Oct; September CPI Wed 14 Oct. Watch core CPI, not the headline.
Movers & Why Thu session
Thu early trade: Dow −0.4%, S&P 500 −0.4%, Nasdaq −0.5% · 10Y 5.227% (−5 bps, CNBC) · final closes, index levels, Fri premarket, Brent, BTC, DXY: —
Jobless claims 197KMatters
Layoffs stay low, so the Fed has room to keep leaning hawkish. Watch; Do nothing.
Waller: more hikes likelyMatters
Echoes the minutes; "flexibility" on pace, no date. Watch for a dissent; Do nothing.
Single-stock movers—
No verified stock-level movers found today. Do nothing.
Smart Money Who's actually buying
Not collected today: searches returned no dated October 2026 insider clusters or fund moves. Congress trades carry a 45-day STOCK Act lag. Honest stub — nothing is a trigger.
Buy Zone Radar Prices unavailable
Prices unavailable. This run's fetch of the Yahoo price feed failed entirely (HTTP 403 from the network proxy, fc.yahoo.com / query1.finance.yahoo.com), so no refresh was run and no zone table is published. data/alpha100.json still carries data last fetched 21 Sept 2026 (16:41 UTC), not re-presented as today's. No new buys, adds or trims until a refresh completes — all levels: —. The cloud environment's network allowlist needs the Yahoo hosts added; the GitHub Actions refresh has not landed a commit since.
Next 48 Hours Dublin time
FRI 9 OCT —
US data and Fed speakers (nothing confirmed in search; times —).Watch for hike language; Do nothing new.
MON 12 OCT
Columbus Day: US bond markets expected closed (stocks generally open).Do nothing; thin bond trading can exaggerate moves.
TUE 13 OCT ~11:45
JPMorgan results (~6:45 ET), Citi and Goldman before the open (aggregator times, unconfirmed).Watch loan losses and guidance; Do nothing before it.
WED 14 OCT 13:30
September CPI (8:30 ET per one event timeline; confirm on BLS schedule).Judge core, not headline; Do nothing before it.
Ignore This Noise filter
"Nasdaq falls 1% as AI trade stumbles." A single-day headline figure that moved around intraday.
So: yields and the Fed path matter; one AI-led down day does not.
Alpha 100 List changes
No editorial adds or ejections today. No refresh commit: the price fetch failed entirely this run. No breadth figure quoted.