EDITION 039THU 8 OCT 2026 · 12:45 DUBLINREGIME: RISK-OFFVERDICT MODE
Today's Move
Fed minutes point to another hike by year-end and the 10-year touched ~5.35%, its highest since 2002 — Hold what's on and Do nothing new; the price feed is blocked again, so there is no radar.
Wednesday: stocks slipped from Tuesday's records before the 19:00 Dublin minutes (Dow about −0.6%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq about −0.2% in the morning session; final closes not confirmed). The minutes said most participants see another rate increase as likely appropriate by year-end, with inflation risks tilted up. A solid $39B 10-year auction pulled yields back from the high. Futures-implied odds of an October hike: ~17%. Plan: Hold; Do nothing new while the 10-year sits above 5%.No price refresh landed today — Yahoo is blocked from this environment (HTTP 403), so the Buy Zone Radar is unavailable.
Big Picture RegimeUnchanged
RISK-OFF holds. The 10-year hit about 5.35% on Wednesday, the highest since 2002, before easing after the auction; the 30-year closed near 5.66%, also a 2002 high. The minutes lean toward one more hike this year. Brent, dollar index and Bitcoin: — (no verified reading today).
What it means: the regime flips RISK-ON only when the 10-year falls away from its highs and the dollar stops rising. Neither happened. Not yet.
Trends: Now & Next Where the money is going
NOW · Bond yields are the market's bossMatters · Regime
Stocks wobbled from records as long yields hit 2002 highs; the auction calmed demand fears. Hold; a record index on 5%+ yields is fragile — Add only at a zone once prices return.
NOW · Hawkish minutes, softer dataWatch
Officials lean to another hike while payrolls (+29K) and hike odds (~17%) have cooled. Watch for the gap to close; Do nothing until it does.
NEXT · Q3 earnings seasonCatalyst
Reports begin shortly; dates for Alpha 100 names — not verified today. Watch guidance, not beats.
Movers & Why Wed session
Wed morning: Dow −0.6%, S&P 500 −0.2%, Nasdaq −0.2% · 10Y high ~5.35% · 30Y ~5.66% · final closes, index levels, Thu premarket, Brent, BTC, DXY: —
Treasuries · 10-year auctionMatters
$39B of 10-year notes sold solidly, easing the 24-year-high yield. Watch the 10-year at 5.35%; Do nothing.
Index records · pulled backNoise
One red session after two record closes. Do nothing.
Single-stock movers—
No verified stock-level movers found today. Do nothing.
Smart Money Who's actually buying
Not collected today: searches returned no dated insider clusters or fund moves. Congress trades carry a 45-day STOCK Act lag. Honest stub — nothing is a trigger.
Buy Zone Radar Prices unavailable
Prices unavailable. This run's fetch of the Yahoo price feed failed entirely (HTTP 403 from the network proxy, hosts fc.yahoo.com / query1.finance.yahoo.com), so no refresh was run and no zone table is published. data/alpha100.json still carries data last fetched 21 Sept 2026 (16:41 UTC), not re-presented as today's. No new buys, adds or trims until a refresh completes — all levels: —. The cloud environment's network allowlist needs the Yahoo hosts added; the GitHub Actions refresh has not landed a commit since.
Next 48 Hours Dublin time
THU 8 OCT —
US jobless claims and Fed speakers (not confirmed in search; times —).Watch for hike language; Do nothing before it.
FRI 9 OCT —
US consumer sentiment (carried from last edition; time not confirmed).Watch inflation expectations; Do nothing new.
Ignore This Noise filter
"Stocks retreat from record highs." A one-day dip of a few tenths of a percent.
So: the 10-year at 2002 highs matters; the index dip does not.
Alpha 100 List changes
No editorial adds or ejections today. No refresh commit: the price fetch failed entirely this run. No breadth figure quoted.