Wednesday's Fed delivered exactly what was priced — a 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00%, 12-0, the first since July 2023 — and Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish dot plot (16 of 18 officials see another hike, four see two more) landed without a fresh selloff: the Dow still posted a third straight losing week (-1.7%, worst since March) while the S&P (-0.1%) and Nasdaq (+0.7%) were roughly flat to firmer. Oil is doing more work this morning — Brent and WTI both down ~2-2.4% as Saudi exports recover past 4m bbl/day (from ~2.4m in August) and US-Iran diplomacy hopes build around this week's UN General Assembly. The week's real catalyst starts Wednesday: Trump greets Xi at Joint Base Andrews for a formal White House arrival, with Thursday's bilateral and state dinner covering the trade truce expiring 10 November, rare-earth and critical-mineral export flows (yttrium, scandium, neodymium, indium — direct inputs to chips, aerospace and defense), and new AI-security guardrails after reports of AI-model security breaches. None of it can be sized against this book today: the scheduled Alpha 100 refresh has not completed since Monday 14 September — this session's own feed access is blocked as always, and the independent CI refresh that normally supplies this book's daily prices has itself failed for four straight sessions behind a data-integrity check in the page generator. Read the trends below; no new trades until a refresh actually completes.
Two of the four legs that built RISK-OFF into last week are easing at the margin, not reversing. The Fed's 25bp hike was fully priced going in, so its delivery removed uncertainty rather than adding a new shock — but Warsh's dot plot is genuinely hawkish (a clear majority of officials expect at least one more hike) and the 10-year sat at an 18-year high of ~5.01% as of Friday's close, still the binding constraint on valuation. Oil is the real mover: Brent and WTI are both down roughly 2-2.4% this morning as Saudi export flows recover and Iran-diplomacy hopes build, unwinding part of the pipeline-outage risk premium that drove Edition 030's regime call. Gold pushed to a fresh high (~$4,383, Thursday) and Bitcoin firmed to ~$81,400 — both read as hedges against the same policy path, not confidence in it.
Fri close: Dow -95.40pts/-0.18% → 51,682.64 · S&P 500 +0.17% → 7,650.50 · Nasdaq Composite +0.39% → 26,522.55 · Week: Dow -1.7% (3rd straight losing week) · S&P -0.1% · Nasdaq +0.7% · Mon premarket: Dow futures +0.35% · S&P 500 futures +0.41% · Nasdaq 100 futures +0.56-0.8% · 10Y ~5.01% (Fri) · Brent ~$101.4-101.8 (-2.0 to -2.5%) · WTI ~$97.9-98.2 (-2.1 to -2.4%) · Gold ~$4,383 (Thu, +0.97%) · Bitcoin ~$81,400 (+1.2%)
index.html) still carries that last-committed data, honestly labeled stale. No new buys, adds or trims off this book until a refresh actually completes — this needs an engineering look at the generator's sell-range guard, not another retry.Bitcoin's push toward $81,400 and gold's fresh record near $4,383. Both are real, sourced moves and both are getting the biggest headlines on financial front pages this morning — but neither is a name anywhere on the Alpha 100, and chasing either as a "risk signal" for this book, without a working price feed to size an actual position in it, is exactly the discipline problem this section exists to flag.
pipeline/generate_page.py, the "SANITY HALT — sell_lo <= buy zone" check) before the next scheduled refresh can be expected to succeed.