The 10-year rose for a fifth straight session to roughly 5.00-5.04%, the highest since 2007, as elevated oil prices and mounting debt-and-supply concerns feed a global bond selloff ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision. CME FedWatch now prices a 25bp hike at somewhere between 85% and 93% depending on the reading, up from just ~48% five weeks ago on 11 August. Brent holds near $107.5-107.9 (WTI ~$103.1-103.3) as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline outage persists, and the AI-slowdown fallout from Saturday's Amodei/Altman/Musk warnings kept splitting the book Monday: cybersecurity names (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Zscaler, Okta) ran up 8-15% since Friday while AI-Compute chip names stayed pressured. None of that can be checked against this book today — the routine's scheduled fetch to the price feed returned zero quotes (network access to the feed is blocked for this session), so per the routine's own contingency, today's refresh commit is skipped and the radar renders "prices unavailable" rather than repricing off yesterday's numbers on a day this volatile. Read the trends below; no new trades until the feed is back.
RISK-OFF now runs on four legs at once. The 10-year Treasury's push to ~5.00-5.04% is the highest since 2007 and its fifth consecutive rising session, tightening financial conditions across the board just as CME FedWatch prices Wednesday's hike as close to certain (readings this morning span 85-93%, versus ~48% on 11 August). Layered on that: Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline outage keeps Brent near $107.5-107.9 on top of the Hormuz tanker war running since late February, and the weekend's coordinated AI-development-slowdown call from Anthropic's Amodei, OpenAI's Altman and xAI's Musk keeps splitting the AI-Compute theme from the rest of the tape. The dollar index sits near 99.35 (+0.25%), gold has fallen to roughly $4,263 (-0.84%, a third straight weekly decline) as hike odds outweigh the live war premium, and Bitcoin holds up better near $76,700-77,000.
Mon close: Dow -152.09pts/-0.29% → 52,421.20 · S&P 500 -0.48% → 7,619.98 · Nasdaq Composite -0.56% → 26,186.41 · Tue premarket: Dow futures ~-0.2 to -0.4% · S&P 500 futures ~-0.2 to -0.3% · Nasdaq 100 futures ~-0.1 to -0.32% · 10Y ~5.00-5.04% (highest since 2007) · Brent ~$107.5-107.9 · WTI ~$103.1-103.3 · DXY ~99.35 · Gold ~$4,263 (-0.84%) · Bitcoin ~$76,700-77,000 · Fed hike odds ~85-93%
fetch_universe.py) returned zero quotes — the session's network access to the price feed (Yahoo Finance) is blocked outright, not merely slow or stale. Per the routine's own contingency for a total fetch failure, today's refresh commit is skipped and no zone table is published this edition: re-presenting Monday 14 Sep's ~16:40 UTC close as if it were today's actionable level would risk a stale signal on a session that has already moved the 10-year to an 18-year high, kept oil elevated on the Saudi pipeline outage, and split the AI-Compute and Software & Cyber themes apart. The site's homepage (index.html) still carries that last-committed data, honestly labeled stale rather than live. No new buys, adds or trims off this book until the feed returns.SoftBank's ~10-11% Tokyo plunge. It's a real, sourced move — SoftBank is one of OpenAI's largest investors, and Monday's AI-slowdown warnings hit it hardest of any single name in the story — but it's a foreign-listed stock nowhere on the Alpha 100, and chasing the loudest single-day headline on a name outside this book, without a working price feed to size anything against, is exactly what the discipline here exists to prevent.