Monday closed lower as the US and Iran traded fire for the first time in about a month — the S&P 500 fell 0.33% to 7,686.14, the Nasdaq slipped 0.12% to 26,370.89 and the Dow led the selling, down 374.09 points (-0.7%) to 53,185.90, even as all three indexes still closed out August with monthly gains. Tuesday's premarket is soft again to open September: S&P futures -0.27%, Dow futures -0.60% (roughly -200pts), Russell futures -0.61%, Nasdaq futures little-changed (+0.06%), after two oil supertankers — one Saudi, one South Korean-owned — were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night. Brent is above $91 (+0.9%), and the 10-year yield has pushed to ~4.78-4.79%, its highest since January 2025, as hawkish Fed signals and rising oil stack together. Underneath the headlines, this morning's scheduled 11:02 UTC GitHub Action refresh repriced the radar again: RTX and Lockheed Martin both slid back into range (Lockheed helped by a fresh seven-year Pentagon missile-defense contract and today's $3.45 dividend ex-date), while Datadog fell through its own zone floor and drops into the broke-zone bucket. Eaton, Eli Lilly, Wells Fargo and Bank of America all hold over from Monday. Buy the six live names in thirds; leave the broke-zone cohort — still concentrated in AI-capex chips and power-buildout names — alone until it repairs. ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS land at 15:00 Dublin, the first hard data since Friday's hawkish Warsh remarks — a reason to keep today's adds to a single tranche, not a reason to skip them.
RISK-OFF holds, and the hawkish shift from Friday's Jackson Hole keynote is compounding rather than fading. The 10-year yield has climbed to roughly 4.78-4.79% — its highest since January 2025 — as rising oil and hawkish Fed signals reinforce each other; one read puts September hike odds above 65%, up from around 36% before Warsh spoke, though trackers still disagree by a wide margin (Kalshi showed a near coin-flip intraday last week versus other venues still near 70% hold). Reopened hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz are adding a second leg to the same trade: Brent above $91, the dollar firm, safe-haven flows into bonds pushing yields up rather than down because the market is pricing the response as inflationary, not growth-negative.
Mon close: Dow -0.7% (-374pts) → 53,185.90 · S&P 500 -0.33% → 7,686.14 · Nasdaq -0.12% → 26,370.89 · Tue premarket: S&P futures -0.27% · Dow futures -0.60% (~-200pts) · Russell futures -0.61% · Nasdaq futures +0.06% · Brent +0.9% → ~$91.28 · 10Y ~4.78-4.79% · Bitcoin ~$78,800 (-1% 24h) · Gold —
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETN In zone |
Eaton — electrification of everything | $401.88 vs 50-day zone $417.22 (-3.7%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $380 · sell $454–478. |
| LLY In zone |
Eli Lilly — GLP-1 franchise + pipeline depth | $1,157 vs 50-day zone $1,188 (-2.6%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $1,061 · sell $1,228–1,293. |
| WFC In zone |
Wells Fargo — post-asset-cap growth case | $86.39 vs 50-day zone $86.19 (+0.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $85 · sell $93–98. |
| RTX In zone |
RTX — missiles + engines; Iran demand pull | $207.73 vs 50-day zone $205.77 (+1.0%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $192 · sell $216–227. |
| BAC In zone |
Bank of America — rate-sensitive book repricing upward | $61.94 vs 50-day zone $61.12 (+1.3%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $55 · sell $62–65. |
| LMT In zone |
Lockheed Martin — rearmament backlog at a value multiple | $561.23 vs 50-day zone $551.06 (+1.8%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $555 · sell $657–692. |
| JPM Limit order |
JPMorgan — the fortress balance sheet | $356.02 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $347.17 (+2.5% above) | Watch at $347. Limit only. Stop $317 · sell $368–375. |
| AMZN Limit order |
Amazon — AWS reacceleration + retail margin lever | $259.77 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $251.97 (+3.1% above) | Watch at $252. Limit only. Stop $239 · sell $273–287. |
| EOG Limit order |
EOG Resources — best-in-class shale returns | $144.96 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $140.21 (+3.4% above) | Watch at $140. Limit only. Stop $128 · sell $146–154. |
| FANG Limit order |
Diamondback — Permian consolidator | $200.48 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $193.53 (+3.6% above) | Watch at $194. Limit only. Stop $180 · sell $206–217. |
| NVO Reclaim gate |
Novo Nordisk — GLP-1 #2 at a discount after stumbles | $45.33 · needs to reclaim 200-day $46.41 (-2.3% below) | Watch for a reclaim close above $46. No buy yet. Stop $46 · sell $61–64 (informational). |
| UBER Reclaim gate |
Uber — platform FCF inflection; AV partnership hub | $75.65 · needs to reclaim 200-day $76.72 (-1.4% below) | Watch for a reclaim close above $77. No buy yet. Stop $77 · sell $97–102 (informational). |
| ASML At zone · downswing |
ASML — litho monopoly; the toll booth of Moore's Law | $1,696 vs 50-day zone $1,768 (-4.1%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $1,464 · sell $1,900–2,000 (informational). |
| AVGO At zone · downswing |
Broadcom — custom AI silicon + software; expensive for a reason | $370.34 vs 50-day zone $385.29 (-3.9%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $369 · sell $470–495 (informational). |
| GOOGL At zone · downswing |
Alphabet — search + Gemini + TPUs; still the cheapest megacap | $339.35 vs 50-day zone $349.20 (-2.8%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $335 · sell $388–409 (informational). |
| GS At zone · downswing |
Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk | $1,026 vs 50-day zone $1,050 (-2.3%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $943 · sell $1,096–1,154 (informational). |
| TSM At zone · downswing |
TSMC — everyone's foundry | $415.32 vs 50-day zone $422.50 (-1.7%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $370 · sell $455–479 (informational). |
| AMAT Broke zone |
Applied Materials — broadest chip-equipment franchise | $458.39 vs 50-day zone $551.07 (-16.8%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $402 · sell $703–740 (informational). |
| GEV Broke zone |
GE Vernova — gas turbines sold out for years | $898.53 vs 50-day zone $1,031 (-12.9%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $877 · sell $1,136–1,196 (informational). |
| COHR Broke zone |
Coherent — optics and transceivers for AI clusters | $277.83 vs 50-day zone $317.51 (-12.5%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $274 · sell $418–440 (informational). |
| VRT Broke zone |
Vertiv — cooling + power gear for AI datacenters | $258.72 vs 50-day zone $289.34 (-10.6%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $255 · sell $361–380 (informational). |
| LRCX Broke zone |
Lam Research — etch & deposition leader; memory-capex proxy | $301.49 vs 50-day zone $331.20 (-9.0%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $257 · sell $417–438 (informational). |
| PWR Broke zone |
Quanta Services — grid-buildout backlog machine | $607.09 vs 50-day zone $662.09 (-8.3%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $583 · sell $749–789 (informational). |
| AMD Broke zone |
AMD — Zen 6 + Helios racks; the credible #2 in accelerators | $470.72 vs 50-day zone $504.74 (-6.7%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $337 · sell $555–585 (informational). |
| NOK Broke zone |
Nokia — networks + patents; deep value on AI backhaul | $10.14 vs 50-day zone $10.86 (-6.6%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $9.54 · sell $16.58–17.45 (informational). |
| MRVL Broke zone |
Marvell — custom silicon + optics for AI datacenters | $211.66 vs 50-day zone $226.58 (-6.6%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $149 · sell $313–330 (informational). |
| DDOG Broke zone |
Datadog — observability + AI monitoring | $237.04 vs 50-day zone $249.73 (-5.1%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $176 · sell $278–293 (informational). |
| MU Wait · crowded knife |
Micron — bear market; Burry short vs ClearBridge long | $958.73 vs 50-day zone $951.50 (+0.8%) | Do nothing. Crowded trade, both sides active. Stop $592 · sell $1,192–1,255 (informational). |
GoPro +85.7% and Fly-E Group +72.4% on "massive volume." Two small/micro-cap names posted eye-popping percentage moves in early trade — the kind of headline that gets forwarded around because the number is huge.