Friday closed slightly lower on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut — the S&P 500 eased 0.25% to 7,711.76, the Dow shed 9.45 points (-0.02%) to 53,559.99 and the Nasdaq slipped 0.52% to 26,402.42. Monday's premarket is soft again: Dow futures down roughly 63 points (-0.1%), S&P futures -0.1% to -0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures near flat, after the US struck Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday — the first such US strike in the region in about a month. Brent jumped 2.9% to $90.69, WTI is back near $85, and energy is the one clean sector bid (Halliburton +2.5%, Chevron/Valero/Occidental +2%, Exxon +1.5% premarket). Underneath the headlines, Saturday's scheduled GitHub Action refresh actually landed and repriced the whole radar: Datadog repaired out of broke-zone into a live buy (-5.0% to its level), Wells Fargo and Bank of America both slid back into range, and Eli Lilly joins fresh — only Eaton holds over from Thursday's five. Palo Alto Networks, Lockheed Martin, ASML and Novo Nordisk have all moved out of the zone (now 2–8% away or in a downswing). Buy the five live names in thirds; leave the nine-name broke-zone cohort — still mostly AI-capex and power names — alone until it repairs.
RISK-OFF holds, and the Fed side of it got more hawkish, not less, after Friday's Jackson Hole keynote. Warsh gave his first speech as chair a genuinely hawkish tilt — inflation, not growth, is his stated priority — and prediction markets split hard on the read: Kalshi's contract swung toward a near coin-flip on a September hike (CNBC reported ~48% hike odds intraday Friday, up from roughly 30% before he spoke), while Polymarket and Kalshi's own headline contract were still showing hold near 73–74% (hike ~25–28.5%) as of late Friday — a genuinely unsettled market, not consensus. The dollar index firmed to ~99.7 on the back of it, and that same safe-haven bid is getting a second leg today from the Iran strikes.
Fri close: Dow -0.02% → 53,559.99 · S&P 500 -0.25% → 7,711.76 · Nasdaq -0.52% → 26,402.42 · Mon premarket: Dow futures ~-0.1% (-63pts) · S&P futures -0.1% to -0.2% · Nasdaq 100 futures near flat · Brent +2.9% → $90.69 · WTI ~$85 · 10Y 4.716% · DXY ~99.70 · Bitcoin ~$78,150 · Gold —
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDOG In zone |
Datadog — observability + AI monitoring | $236.98 vs 50-day zone $249.45 (-5.0%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $176 · sell $278–293. |
| ETN In zone |
Eaton — electrification of everything | $402.78 vs 50-day zone $417.24 (-3.5%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $380 · sell $454–478. |
| LLY In zone |
Eli Lilly — GLP-1 franchise + pipeline depth | $1,175 vs 50-day zone $1,187 (-1.0%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $1,060 · sell $1,228–1,293. |
| WFC In zone |
Wells Fargo — post-asset-cap growth case | $86.69 vs 50-day zone $86.20 (+0.6%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $85 · sell $93–98. |
| BAC In zone |
Bank of America — rate-sensitive book repricing upward | $62.32 vs 50-day zone $61.12 (+2.0%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $55 · sell $65–67. |
| ASML At zone · downswing |
ASML — litho monopoly | $1,696 vs 50-day zone $1,768 (-4.1%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $1,464 · sell $1,900–2,000 (informational). |
| GS At zone · downswing |
Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk | $1,034 vs 50-day zone $1,050 (-1.6%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $943 · sell $1,096–1,154 (informational). |
| TSM At zone · downswing |
TSMC — everyone's foundry | $417.52 vs 50-day zone $423.43 (-1.4%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $370 · sell $455–479 (informational). |
| GOOGL At zone · downswing |
Alphabet — search + Gemini + TPUs, still the cheapest megacap | $346.59 vs 50-day zone $349.78 (-0.9%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $335 · sell $388–409 (informational). |
| AVGO Reclaim gate |
Broadcom — custom AI silicon + software | $368.79 · needs to reclaim 200-day $369.38 (-0.2% below) | Watch for a reclaim close above $369. No buy yet. Stop $369 · sell $470–495 (informational). |
| NVO Reclaim gate |
Novo Nordisk — GLP-1 #2 at a discount after stumbles | $45.61 · needs to reclaim 200-day $46.41 (-1.7% below) | Watch for a reclaim close above $46. No buy yet. Stop $46 · sell $61–64 (informational). |
| CCJ Reclaim gate |
Cameco — western uranium duopoly | $100.01 · needs to reclaim 200-day $105.10 (-4.8% below) | Watch for a reclaim close above $105. No buy yet. Stop $105 · sell $128–135 (informational). |
| AMAT Broke zone |
Applied Materials — broadest chip-equipment franchise | $461.67 vs 50-day zone $551.13 (-16.2%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $402 · sell $703–740 (informational). |
| COHR Broke zone |
Coherent — optics and transceivers for AI clusters | $279.20 vs 50-day zone $319.74 (-12.7%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $273 · sell $418–440 (informational). |
| GEV Broke zone |
GE Vernova — gas turbines sold out for years | $911.93 vs 50-day zone $1,032 (-11.6%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $877 · sell $1,136–1,196 (informational). |
| VRT Broke zone |
Vertiv — cooling + power gear for AI datacenters | $257.08 vs 50-day zone $289.31 (-11.1%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $255 · sell $361–380 (informational). |
| PWR Broke zone |
Quanta Services — grid-buildout backlog machine | $602.70 vs 50-day zone $662.00 (-9.0%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $583 · sell $749–789 (informational). |
| LRCX Broke zone |
Lam Research — etch & deposition leader, memory-capex proxy | $301.90 vs 50-day zone $331.21 (-8.8%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $257 · sell $417–439 (informational). |
| AMD Broke zone |
AMD — Zen 6 + Helios racks; the credible #2 in accelerators | $465.58 vs 50-day zone $506.08 (-8.0%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $336 · sell $555–585 (informational). |
| NOK Broke zone |
Nokia — networks + patents, deep value on AI backhaul | $10.21 vs 50-day zone $10.92 (-6.5%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $9.53 · sell $16.58–17.45 (informational). |
| MRVL Broke zone |
Marvell — custom silicon + optics for AI datacenters | $216.62 vs 50-day zone $228.56 (-5.2%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $149 · sell $313–330 (informational). |
| MU Wait · crowded knife |
Micron — bear market; Burry short vs ClearBridge long | $932.86 vs 50-day zone $955.00 (-2.3%) | Do nothing. Same crowded trade as prior editions. Stop $588 · sell $1,192–1,255 (informational). |
| FANG Limit order |
Diamondback Energy — Permian consolidator | $197.67 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $193.48 (+2.2% above) | Watch at $193. Limit only. Stop $179 · sell $206–217. |
| EOG Limit order |
EOG Resources — best-in-class shale returns | $143.35 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $140.18 (+2.3% above) | Watch at $140. Limit only. Stop $128 · sell $146–154. |
| LMT Limit order |
Lockheed Martin — rearmament backlog at a value multiple | $563.85 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $551.12 (+2.3% above) | Watch at $551. Limit only. Stop $555 · sell $657–692. |
| RTX Limit order |
RTX — missiles + engines, Iran demand pull | $211.71 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $205.85 (+2.8% above) | Watch at $206. Limit only. Stop $192 · sell $216–227. |
| JPM Limit order |
JPMorgan — the fortress balance sheet | $357.62 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $347.21 (+3.0% above) | Watch at $347. Limit only. Stop $317 · sell $368–375. |
| NVDA Limit order |
Nvidia — the AI franchise; forward multiple back at pre-boom levels | $217.55 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $208.42 (+4.4% above) | Watch at $208. Limit only. Stop $196 · sell $225–237. |
The IRGC's claim of "decisive control" over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media rhetoric continues to frame the Strait as fully under Iranian control, and traffic through it has reportedly been down roughly 95% for months under the blockade.