Alpha Intelligence

The Daily Brief

EDITION 022WED 26 AUG 2026 · 13:30 DUBLINREGIME: RISK-OFF
Today's Move
Buy the five live BUY NOW names in thirds now — Core PCE, GDP and durable goods land within the hour, and Nvidia's own overnight strength already priced it out of the buy zone ahead of tonight's earnings.

Tuesday closed broadly higher — the S&P 500 added 0.3% to 7,677.28, the Dow rose 0.3% to 53,577.40 and the Nasdaq climbed 0.7% — as the 10-year eased 7bp to 4.63% and oil kept sliding (WTI now ~$80.78, a third straight down session). Bitcoin spiked to $80,894 on a buyback-driven short squeeze before fading back to ~$78,750 by Wednesday morning. Wednesday's premarket is split down the middle: chip stocks are rallying into tonight's Nvidia print (Intel +3%, AMD +2% on a fresh Raymond James upgrade) while software names slide on weak guides (Intuit, Zoom, Adobe, ServiceNow, Atlassian all lower), leaving the S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures marginally negative. Inside the Alpha 100, that same split did the real work overnight: Nvidia (+2.5% vs its zone, was +0.4% Monday) and Dell (+5.0%, was +1.0%) both popped back out of their 50-day zones on the chip rally, while software weakness pulled Palo Alto Networks (was +4.0% above zone, now +0.4%) down into range and Lockheed Martin (was +2.8%, now +1.3%) drifted in alongside it — the live BUY NOW roster holds at five names for a third straight session, fully rotated again. Buy ASML, Eaton, Novo Nordisk, Palo Alto Networks and Lockheed Martin in full thirds; Nvidia sitting just outside its own zone ahead of its own earnings is exactly where you want it today — nowhere.

Big Picture Regime Unchanged

RISK-OFF holds. The Fed's target sits at 3.50–3.75%, and CME FedWatch now prices roughly a 40% chance of a quarter-point September hike — up from ~30% on Monday — even as the dollar index holds soft, just under 99. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, lands at 13:30 Dublin with consensus at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, unchanged from June. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday morning (10:00 ET / 15:00 Dublin) — the richest scheduled signal left before the 16 September FOMC.

What it means: hike odds ticking back up while the dollar stays soft is a genuinely two-way market again, not the one-way fade priced earlier this week. Today's PCE print is the next data point that moves it either way — judge the core number, not the headline, before Friday's keynote.

Trends: Now & Next Where the money is going

NOW · Three prints before the open, one after the closeCatalyst
Core PCE, the Q2 GDP second estimate and July durable goods orders all land at 13:30 Dublin — consensus core PCE +0.2% m/m / 3.3% y/y, unchanged. Nvidia reports Q2 FY27 after tonight's US close (~21:30 Dublin); it guided $91B revenue ±2%, but Street wants $93–95B (+96% YoY) and $0.65–0.68 EPS, with Blackwell Ultra execution and hyperscaler demand mattering more than a narrow beat. Nothing to buy or sell on data alone before both land — the radar rotation, not the tape, is doing the work today.
NOW · The BUY NOW roster rotates again — Nvidia and Dell out, Palo Alto Networks and Lockheed Martin inRotation
Tuesday's chip rally (Intel +3%, AMD +2%, Nvidia premarket strength) pushed Nvidia and Dell back above their 50-day zones into limit orders, while the same software weakness dragging Intuit and Zoom lower pulled Palo Alto Networks and Lockheed Martin down into range. Same five-name headline count for a third straight session, a different roster each time — the zones move even when the story doesn't.
NOW · September hike odds climb to ~40% as the dollar stays softWatch
FedWatch's September hike probability has drifted from ~30% Monday to ~40% today, even as DXY holds below 99 ahead of PCE. A genuinely two-way market three days out from Warsh's Jackson Hole debut — today's inflation print is the next real input.
NEXT · Nvidia earnings — the AI-capex referendumCatalyst
After tonight's close: guided $91B ±2% revenue, Street wants $93–95B and $0.65–0.68 EPS. The next-quarter guide and Blackwell Ultra execution matter more than the headline beat — NVDA prices as a limit order today, not a buy, until the print is in.
NEXT · Jackson Hole opens tomorrow, Warsh's debut keynote FridayCatalyst
The Kansas City Fed symposium runs Thursday 27 to Saturday 29 August; Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first keynote as Fed Chair Friday morning. The richest scheduled read yet on how the new Chair frames the hike-vs-hold debate, three weeks before the 16 September decision.

Movers & Why Tuesday's close + Wednesday's premarket

Tue close: Dow +0.3% → 53,577.40 · S&P 500 +0.3% → 7,677.28 · Nasdaq +0.7% · Wed premarket: S&P futures -0.1% · Nasdaq 100 futures -0.2% · Dow futures flat · WTI ~$80.78 (-1.9%) · 10Y 4.63% (Tue close) · Gold ~$4,674.60 (off a $4,715 Wed high) · Bitcoin ~$78,746 (-2.7% off Tue's $80,894 spike) · DXY ~98.96

Chips rally, software slides — a split tape into Nvidia's printMatters
Intel +3%, AMD +2% (Raymond James upgrade to Strong Buy, $641 target, ~40% implied upside) and Nvidia premarket strength led chips higher, while Intuit (still down near 12% post-earnings), Zoom (-5%+ on soft guidance), Adobe, ServiceNow and Atlassian all fell. Two Alpha 100 names sit right in the crossfire: AMD, already broke zone at -5.8%, just got a fresh bull case; Palo Alto Networks fell straight into its own buy zone on the same software weakness hitting its peers.
Bitcoin spikes to $80,894 on a buyback squeeze, then gives half of it backMatters
A buyback-related short squeeze drove Tuesday's pop before Bitcoin faded to ~$78,750 by Wednesday morning — a round trip inside 24 hours. Read it as a volatility tell, not a directional signal; the driver was idiosyncratic, not the Fed-pricing story feeding gold and the dollar.
Oil's third straight decline eases into PCEMinor
WTI is down another ~1.9% to ~$80.78, extending Monday and Tuesday's slide. Lower energy input costs are a tailwind for today's core PCE read, not a headline in themselves.
Gold holds just off its own record after a brief pop toward $4,716Minor
Gold opened Wednesday roughly half a percent higher before fading back to ~$4,675 by mid-morning. Consistent with a market still hedged both ways into the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Smart Money Who's actually buying

Insider Form 4 clusters and fresh STOCK Act disclosures tied to an Alpha 100 name specifically: not collected this session — an honest gap, not an empty market. One background data point: TSMC (TSM, an Alpha 100 name) is one of only two large-caps with a cluster of insider buys in the trailing 90 days — old enough now to be context, not a fresh signal. Lagged · trailing 90 days The House-passed trading-ban bill (232–198, 22 July) remains stalled in the Senate, unchanged since Monday's edition.

Buy Zone Radar Alpha 100 · fetched 26 Aug 11:07 UTC — 5 in zone, 3 at-zone watch, 3 reclaim gates, 9 broke zone + 1 crowded knife, 6 limit orders near zone (27 of 100 shown)

NameStatusLevel & anchorAction
PANW
In zone		 Palo Alto Networks — platformization is working $339.90 vs 50-day zone $338.47 (+0.4%) Buy in thirds. Stop $227 · sell $379–399.
LMT
In zone		 Lockheed Martin — rearmament backlog at a value multiple $556.52 vs 50-day zone $549.18 (+1.3%) Buy in thirds. Stop $553 · sell $657–692.
ASML
In zone		 ASML — litho monopoly $1,744 vs 50-day zone $1,776 (-1.8%) Buy in thirds. Stop $1,454 · sell $1,900–2,000.
ETN
In zone		 Eaton — electrification of everything $409.20 vs 50-day zone $416.96 (-1.9%) Buy in thirds. Stop $379 · sell $454–478.
NVO
In zone		 Novo Nordisk — GLP-1 #2 at a discount after stumbles $48.66 vs 50-day zone $47.73 (+1.9%) Buy in thirds. Stop $46 · sell $61–64.
GS
At zone · downswing		 Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk $1,059 vs 50-day zone $1,053 (+0.5%) Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $939 · sell $1,096–1,154 (informational).
GOOGL
At zone · downswing		 Alphabet — search + Gemini + TPUs, still the cheapest megacap $346.96 vs 50-day zone $351.32 (-1.2%) Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $334 · sell $388–409 (informational).
TSM
At zone · downswing		 TSMC — everyone's foundry $417.41 vs 50-day zone $424.17 (-1.6%) Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $368 · sell $455–479 (informational).
WFC
Reclaim gate		 Wells Fargo — post-asset-cap growth case $84.79 · needs to reclaim 200-day $84.92 (-0.2% below) Watch for a reclaim close above $85. No buy yet. Stop $85 · sell $93–98 (informational).
AVGO
Reclaim gate		 Broadcom — custom AI silicon + software $356.74 · needs to reclaim 200-day $369.22 (-3.4% below) Watch for a reclaim close above $369. No buy yet. Stop $369 · sell $470–495 (informational).
CLS
Reclaim gate		 Celestica — hyperscaler ODM compounder $306.86 · needs to reclaim 200-day $328.92 (-6.7% below) Watch for a reclaim close above $329. No buy yet. Stop $329 · sell $450–474 (informational).
AMD
Broke zone		 AMD — Zen 6 + Helios racks; fresh Raymond James upgrade to $641 $479.18 vs 50-day zone $508.95 (-5.8%) Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $332 · sell $555–585 (informational).
LRCX
Broke zone		 Lam Research — etch & deposition leader, memory-capex proxy $314.66 vs 50-day zone $335.19 (-6.1%) Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $255 · sell $417–438 (informational).
NOK
Broke zone		 Nokia — deep value on AI backhaul $10.35 vs 50-day zone $11.15 (-7.2%) Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $9 · sell $17–17 (informational).
PWR
Broke zone		 Quanta Services — grid-buildout backlog machine $603.78 vs 50-day zone $668.35 (-9.7%) Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $581 · sell $749–789 (informational).
DDOG
Broke zone		 Datadog — observability + AI monitoring $222.99 vs 50-day zone $249.11 (-10.5%) Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $175 · sell $278–293 (informational).
GEV
Broke zone		 GE Vernova — gas turbines sold out for years $926.73 vs 50-day zone $1,035 (-10.5%) Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $872 · sell $1,136–1,196 (informational).
COHR
Broke zone		 Coherent — optics and transceivers for AI clusters $288.14 vs 50-day zone $325.87 (-11.6%) Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $271 · sell $418–440 (informational).
VRT
Broke zone		 Vertiv — cooling + power gear for AI datacenters $255.75 vs 50-day zone $292.09 (-12.4%) Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $254 · sell $361–380 (informational).
AMAT
Broke zone		 Applied Materials — broadest chip-equipment franchise $480.04 vs 50-day zone $557.60 (-13.9%) Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $398 · sell $703–740 (informational).
MU
Wait · crowded knife		 Micron — bear market; Burry short vs ClearBridge long $932.97 vs 50-day zone $961.91 (-3.0%) Do nothing. Same crowded trade as last week. Stop $578 · sell $1,192–1,255 (informational).
NVDA
Limit order		 Nvidia — the AI franchise, reporting tonight $213.05 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $207.81 (+2.5% above) Watch at $208. No entry before tonight's print. Stop $195 · sell $225–237.
BAC
Limit order		 Bank of America — rate-sensitive book repricing upward $62.43 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $60.79 (+2.7% above) Watch at $61. Limit only. Stop $55 · sell $65–67.
RTX
Limit order		 RTX — missiles + engines, Iran demand pull $210.28 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $204.39 (+2.9% above) Watch at $204. Limit only. Stop $192 · sell $216–227.
JPM
Limit order		 JPMorgan — the fortress balance sheet $356.69 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $345.52 (+3.2% above) Watch at $346. Limit only. Stop $317 · sell $366–373.
MRVL
Limit order		 Marvell — custom silicon + optics for AI datacenters $240.38 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $232.03 (+3.6% above) Watch at $232. Limit only. Stop $147 · sell $313–330 (informational).
FANG
Limit order		 Diamondback Energy — Permian consolidator $199.89 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $192.79 (+3.7% above) Watch at $193. Limit only. Stop $179 · sell $206–217.
Breadth: 52 of 100 names sit above their 50-day, up from 49 of 100 Tuesday. Information, not a gate — low-breadth entries have historically outperformed in this book's own backtest.

Next 48 Hours Dublin time

WED 26 AUG 13:30
Core PCE (Jul), Q2 GDP second estimate, durable goods orders — all in one release, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge among them. Consensus: core +0.2% m/m / 3.3% y/y.Set the ASML/Eaton/Novo Nordisk/Palo Alto/Lockheed thirds before this data lands, not after — it's the last major print before Nvidia reports hours later.
WED 26 AUG ~21:30
Nvidia Q2 FY27 earnings, after the US close.The AI-capex referendum. NVDA is a limit order today, not a buy — no size until the print and guide are in.
THU 27 AUG
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium opens (Kansas City Fed, through Sat 29 Aug).Watch tone from other Fed speakers on stage as a preview of Friday's Warsh keynote.
THU 27 AUG 13:30
Initial jobless claims.The last labor read before Friday's Warsh keynote — a jump feeds the Fed-hold case, a low print feeds the hike case.

Ignore This Noise filter

Keith Gill's return to social media, reviving "meme stock summer" talk. Retail chatter is chasing GME/AMC-style names again on his re-emergence, with mention-volume spikes in small-cap names like Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) — not an Alpha 100 name, and not connected to anything actually moving markets today.

So: ignore the mentions screen. Today's real catalysts — Core PCE, Nvidia's earnings — are calendar-scheduled and fundamentals-driven, not social-media-driven. Nothing here changes a single zone on the radar.

Alpha 100 List changes

No editorial adds or ejections today — all 100 names carry the same tier, tag and thesis as yesterday's read. Market-data refresh completed at 11:07 UTC via the scheduled GitHub Action; this edition reads that data directly rather than re-fetching, since it was already fresh from today's own automated run. 52/100 names sit above their 50-day, up from 49/100 Tuesday. The BUY NOW roster held at five names but rotated for a third straight session: Nvidia and Dell graduated out to limit orders as Tuesday's chip rally pushed both back above their zones, while Palo Alto Networks and Lockheed Martin graduated in as the software-sector weakness pulled them down into range. The BROKE ZONE bucket held steady at nine names (AMD, Lam Research, Nokia, Quanta Services, Datadog, GE Vernova, Coherent, Vertiv, Applied Materials).