Friday closed strong — the Dow added 517.80 points (+1.0%) to 53,277.01, the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,674.37 and the Nasdaq gained 0.4% to 26,180.45 — but Monday's futures are giving a little of it back: Dow and S&P futures are down about 0.1%, Nasdaq futures down 0.4%, as Treasury Secretary Bessent prepares an afternoon press conference on new Iran sanctions he's calling the "greatest financial offensive ever," and Canada confirmed retaliatory tariffs starting 8 September after weekend US-Canada trade talks broke down. Oddly, oil is falling into its own sanctions headline — WTI down 2.1% to $85.27, Brent down 1.6% to $92.92 — while gold keeps climbing, up 0.8% to $4,645.74, its highest since mid-May, and the 10-year sits near a 20-month high around 4.74%. Inside the Alpha 100 the real story is repair: Novo Nordisk closed back above its 200-day and moved straight into its buy zone, and Bank of America's zone widened enough to catch it too — the live BUY NOW roster grows to four (ASML, Eaton, Novo Nordisk, Bank of America) from Friday's three, and breadth improved to 51/99 above the 50-day from 48/100. Buy the four in thirds. Everything else — including Alibaba's 8% Hong Kong plunge — waits for Wednesday's Nvidia print and Friday's Jackson Hole keynote.
RISK-OFF holds. Friday's bounce was real but shallow, and Monday's fresh escalations — Iran sanctions, Canada tariffs — show the underlying bond-and-oil tension hasn't actually resolved, just paused for a session. The Fed's target sits at 3.50–3.75% after five meetings on hold, with three dissents favouring a hike at the 29 July decision. CME FedWatch prices roughly a 31.6% chance of a hike at the 16 September FOMC (68.4% hold) — down from an ~82% July peak but still very much live. Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair on Friday morning, three weeks ahead of that decision.
Fri close: Dow +1.0% → 53,277.01 · S&P 500 +0.4% → 7,674.37 · Nasdaq +0.4% → 26,180.45 · Mon premarket: Dow/S&P futures -0.1% · Nasdaq futures -0.4% · WTI $85.27 (-2.1%) · Brent $92.92 (-1.6%) · 10Y ~4.74% · Gold $4,645.74 (+0.8%) · Bitcoin $77,253.90
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETN In zone |
Eaton — electrification of everything | $419 vs 50-day zone $416 (+0.7%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $379 · sell $454–478. |
| ASML In zone |
ASML — litho monopoly | $1,764 vs 50-day zone $1,782 (-1.0%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $1,447 · sell $1,900–2,000. |
| NVO In zone |
Novo Nordisk — GLP-1 #2 at a discount after stumbles | $46.74 vs 50-day zone $47.58 (-1.8%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $46.42 · sell $60.95–64.16. |
| BAC In zone |
Bank of America — rate-sensitive book repricing upward | $61.69 vs 50-day zone $60.52 (+1.9%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $54.41 · sell $61.97–65.23. |
| TSM At zone · downswing |
TSMC — everyone's foundry | $419 vs 50-day zone $425 (-1.3%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $366 · sell $455–479 (informational). |
| GS At zone · downswing |
Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk | $1,039 vs 50-day zone $1,053 (-1.3%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $936 · sell $1,096–1,154 (informational). |
| MRVL At zone · downswing |
Marvell — custom silicon + optics for AI datacenters | $237 vs 50-day zone $234 (+1.4%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $145 · sell $313–330 (informational). |
| GOOGL At zone · downswing |
Alphabet — search + Gemini + TPUs | $345 vs 50-day zone $352 (-2.0%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $333 · sell $388–409 (informational). |
| PWR At zone · downswing |
Quanta Services — grid-buildout backlog machine | $639 vs 50-day zone $672 (-4.8%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $579 · sell $749–789 (informational). |
| AVGO Reclaim gate |
Broadcom — custom AI silicon + software | $368 · needs to reclaim 200-day $369 (-0.2% below) | Watch for a reclaim close above $369. No buy yet. Stop $369 · sell $470–495 (informational). |
| WFC Reclaim gate |
Wells Fargo — post-asset-cap growth case | $83.84 · needs to reclaim 200-day $84.94 (-1.3% below) | Watch for a reclaim close above $84.94. No buy yet. Stop $84.94 · sell $92.87–97.76 (informational). |
| CCJ Reclaim gate |
Cameco — western uranium duopoly | $103 · needs to reclaim 200-day $105 (-2.2% below) | Watch for a reclaim close above $105. No buy yet. Stop $105 · sell $128–135 (informational). |
| MOD Reclaim gate |
Modine — datacenter cooling ramp | $198 · needs to reclaim 200-day $208 (-5.2% below) | Watch for a reclaim close above $208. No buy yet. Stop $208 · sell $307–323 (informational). |
| DDOG Broke zone |
Datadog — observability + AI monitoring | $236 vs 50-day zone $249 (-5.5%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $174 · sell $278–293 (informational). |
| LRCX Broke zone |
Lam Research — etch & deposition leader | $314 vs 50-day zone $337 (-6.9%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $254 · sell $417–438 (informational). |
| AMD Broke zone |
AMD — Zen 6 + Helios racks; the credible #2 in accelerators | $473 vs 50-day zone $510 (-7.2%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $330 · sell $555–585 (informational). |
| GEV Broke zone |
GE Vernova — gas turbines sold out for years | $957 vs 50-day zone $1,035 (-7.6%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $868 · sell $1,136–1,196 (informational). |
| NOK Broke zone |
Nokia — networks + patents | $10.21 vs 50-day zone $11.32 (-9.8%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $9.44 · sell $16.58–17.45 (informational). |
| VRT Broke zone |
Vertiv — cooling + power gear for AI datacenters | $262 vs 50-day zone $294 (-10.9%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $253 · sell $361–380 (informational). |
| COHR Broke zone |
Coherent — optics and transceivers for AI clusters | $290 vs 50-day zone $330 (-12.2%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $270 · sell $418–440 (informational). |
| AMAT Broke zone |
Applied Materials — broadest chip-equipment franchise | $492 vs 50-day zone $561 (-12.2%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $396 · sell $703–740 (informational). |
| JPM Limit order |
JPMorgan — the fortress balance sheet | $352 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $344 (+2.2% above) | Watch at $344. Limit only. Stop $316 · sell $365–372. |
| LMT Limit order |
Lockheed Martin — rearmament backlog at a value multiple | $564 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $549 (+2.7% above) | Watch at $549. Limit only. Stop $553 · sell $657–692. |
| RTX Limit order |
RTX — missiles + engines | $210 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $203 (+3.2% above) | Watch at $203. Limit only. Stop $192 · sell $216–227. |
| DELL Limit order |
Dell — AI-server share at a value multiple | $442 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $428 (+3.3% above) | Watch at $428. Limit only. Stop $237 · sell $488–514. |
| NVDA Limit order |
Nvidia — the AI franchise | $215 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $208 (+3.4% above) | Watch at $208. Limit only, into Wed's earnings. Stop $195 · sell $225–237. |
| AMZN Limit order |
Amazon — AWS reacceleration + retail margin lever | $259 · buy ≤ 50-day zone $250 (+3.6% above) | Watch at $250. Limit only. Stop $238 · sell $273–287. |
Micro-cap premarket spikes — "SDOT +78%", "BTCT +41%" — on thin-volume crypto/AI-infrastructure headlines. These are sub-penny-to-small-cap names moving on a debt paydown announcement and a 10MW facility "nearing deployment," not earnings or revenue. Neither is an Alpha 100 name, and the percentage moves say nothing about the real market.