Futures point to a green open — Dow, S&P and Nasdaq-100 futures all +0.5% — after the Treasury said Wednesday it will "at least double" the size of its long-dated buyback operations (10- to 30-year sector), pulling the 10-year down 6bp to 4.65% and the 30-year down 8-9bp to ~5.20%, off Tuesday's 19-year high of 5.33%. Trump separately paused the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods due at midnight, giving both sides until Friday to finalize a deal. But Tuesday's real damage is still working through the Alpha 100: the semiconductor selloff that hit the Nasdaq (-1.3%) and the SMH chip index (-5%, Micron -7.6%) has pushed the Buy Zone Radar's BROKE ZONE bucket from 2 names Monday to 7 this morning — Applied Materials, Marvell, Vertiv, Rocket Lab, AMD, Coherent and Nokia are all now falling knives, more than 5% under their 50-day zones. FOMC minutes from the 28-29 July meeting land at 19:00 Dublin; the headline (a 9-3 hold with the first three-way hawkish dissent since 2016) is already known and has already pulled September hike odds to ~31% — the internal tone of how close those dissenters came to a majority is the actual read left in it. Do nothing on the broke-zone names; the five BUY NOW entries (GEV, GS, DDOG, ASML, WFC) are the only actionable zone today.
Two separate reliefs are pulling the tape green this morning after a week of AI-valuation nerves and a bond market under real supply strain: the Treasury's surprise decision to at least double its long-dated buyback operations, and a Canada tariff reprieve that removes a specific near-term shock. Neither changes the underlying picture — a Fed that just described its closest call on a hike in a decade, an AI/semiconductor complex working off crowded positioning (SMH -5% Tuesday, seven Alpha 100 chip names now BROKE ZONE), and long-end yields still historically elevated even after today's pullback.
Tue close: Dow -0.22% (-116.38pts) → 53,343.40 · S&P -0.69% (-53.30) → 7,691.76 · Nasdaq -1.3% · Wed premarket: Dow fut +0.5% · S&P fut +0.5% · Nasdaq-100 fut +0.5% · Brent $91.52 · WTI $85.18 · 10Y 4.647% · 30Y ~5.20% · Bitcoin ~$64,339
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| GEV In zone |
GE Vernova — gas turbines sold out for years | $1,004.53 vs 50-day zone $1,031.27 (-2.6%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $862 · sell $1,136–1,196. |
| GS In zone |
Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk | $1,040.47 vs 50-day zone $1,053.69 (-1.3%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $933 · sell $1,096–1,154. |
| DDOG In zone |
Datadog — observability + AI monitoring | $246.00 vs 50-day zone $249.12 (-1.3%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $173 · sell $278–293. |
| ASML In zone |
ASML — litho monopoly; the toll booth of Moore's Law | $1,802.98 vs 50-day zone $1,781.44 (+1.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $1,436 · sell $1,900–2,000. |
| WFC In zone |
Wells Fargo — post-asset-cap growth case | $87.40 vs 50-day zone $85.74 (+1.9%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $85 · sell $93–98. |
| LRCX At zone · downswing |
Lam Research — etch & deposition leader, memory-capex proxy | $327.92 vs 50-day zone $338.11 (-3.0%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $251 · sell $417–439 (informational). |
| TSM At zone · downswing |
TSMC — everyone's foundry | $413.41 vs 50-day zone $424.85 (-2.7%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $365 · sell $455–479 (informational). |
| AVGO At zone · downswing |
Broadcom — custom AI silicon + software; expensive for a reason | $380.00 vs 50-day zone $389.82 (-2.5%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $369 · sell $470–495 (informational). |
| GOOGL At zone · downswing |
Alphabet — Search + Gemini + TPUs; still the cheapest megacap | $344.20 vs 50-day zone $352.84 (-2.4%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $332 · sell $388–409 (informational). |
| AMD Broke zone |
AMD — Zen 6 + Helios racks; the credible #2 in accelerators | $484.39 vs 50-day zone $510.42 (-5.1%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $327 · sell $555–585 (informational). |
| RKLB Broke zone |
Rocket Lab — Neutron optionality on a real launch business | $79.16 vs 50-day zone $84.16 (-5.9%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $79 · sell $143–151 (informational). |
| VRT Broke zone |
Vertiv — cooling + power gear for AI datacenters | $272.54 vs 50-day zone $295.56 (-7.8%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $252 · sell $361–380 (informational). |
| MRVL Broke zone |
Marvell — custom silicon + optics for AI datacenters | $216.00 vs 50-day zone $235.51 (-8.3%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $143 · sell $313–330 (informational). |
| AMAT Broke zone |
Applied Materials — broadest chip-equipment franchise | $514.33 vs 50-day zone $560.78 (-8.3%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $392 · sell $703–740 (informational). |
| COHR Broke zone |
Coherent — optics and transceivers for AI clusters | $306.43 vs 50-day zone $334.49 (-8.4%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $267 · sell $418–440 (informational). |
| NOK Broke zone |
Nokia — networks + patents; deep value on AI backhaul | $10.39 vs 50-day zone $11.55 (-10.1%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $9 · sell $17 (informational). |
Moderna's ~95% premarket melanoma-vaccine pop, treated as a market-moving headline. The trial result is genuinely significant for oncology — the first successful late-stage readout for any mRNA cancer therapy — and it's dragging the whole vaccine complex higher (Merck, BioNTech, Novavax all up premarket). But it's a single-name, single-trial binary event with zero connection to the Fed, rates, oil or the AI-compute pullback that's actually moving the Alpha 100 today.