Thursday closed at a fresh record — S&P 500 +0.65% to 7,798.99 (27th record close this year, after an intraday all-time high of 7,816.70), Dow +0.13% (+69.72pts) to 53,839.99, Nasdaq +0.81% to 26,803.03 — as a flat July PPI print pulled September rate-hike odds down toward ~45% (from 67% a month ago) and eased the same rate anxiety that's driven this whole cycle. Friday's premarket sits close to flat — S&P futures barely moved, Dow futures -0.1%, Nasdaq-100 futures +0.2% — with Asian markets extending the rally overnight (KOSPI +2.4%). Two real tests land before the US session settles: July retail sales at 13:30 Dublin (consensus headline +0.1%, core +0.2%) and preliminary University of Michigan sentiment at 15:00 Dublin. Applied Materials, an Alpha 100 name, posted a genuine beat after Thursday's close — revenue $9.12bn (+25% y/y), EPS $3.50 vs. $3.45 est., and a Q4 guide (~$10.25bn) well above the Street's $9.54bn — but drew a negative initial reaction (Bloomberg: -2.5% after hours; other outlets as much as -5–6%) on priced-for-perfection expectations, before premarket quotes stabilized closer to flat. And the Strait of Hormuz standoff just got sharper: Treasury Secretary Bessent is promising "economic isolation... like the world has never seen" for Iran next week, layered on an already-indefinite naval blockade — Brent +0.96% to $87.91, WTI +1.08% to $82.13 this morning on the threat.
The rates story keeps easing — flat July PPI on top of soft July CPI, September hike odds down to roughly 45% from 67% a month ago, the 10-year at 4.66–4.68%, the dollar index near 99.86 — while the Hormuz story keeps hardening. Bessent's promised "economic isolation" plan for Iran next week is a step up from mere blockade rhetoric, and gold holding above $4,400 (near ten-week highs) says the market isn't fully buying the calm the record close implies. Today's retail sales print (13:30 Dublin) is the real test of whether the consumer is still absorbing tariff and price pressure, not a formality ahead of a quiet Friday.
Thu close: Dow +0.13% (+69.72pts) → 53,839.99 · S&P +0.65% → 7,798.99 (record) · Nasdaq +0.81% → 26,803.03 · Fri premarket: S&P fut ~flat · Nasdaq-100 fut +0.2% · Dow fut -0.1% · Brent $87.91 · WTI $82.13 · 10Y ~4.67% · DXY ~99.86 · Gold >$4,400 · Bitcoin ~$62,829
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM In zone |
TSMC — everyone's foundry | $430.49 vs 50-day zone $425.37 (+1.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $363 · sell $455–479. |
| DDOG In zone |
Datadog — observability + AI monitoring | $252.24 vs 50-day zone $248.71 (+1.4%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $172 · sell $278–293. |
| LRCX In zone |
Lam Research — etch & deposition leader, memory-capex proxy | $337.01 vs 50-day zone $337.70 (-0.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $249 · sell $417–438. |
| NVO In zone |
Novo Nordisk — GLP-1 #2 at a discount after stumbles | $46.72 vs 50-day zone $47.15 (-0.9%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $47 · sell $61–64. |
| GS In zone |
Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk | $1,043 vs 50-day zone $1,055 (-1.1%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $929 · sell $1,096–1,154. |
| AMAT In zone |
Applied Materials — broadest chip-equipment franchise | $534.54 vs 50-day zone $558.76 (-4.3%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $387 · sell $703–740. Price above is Thursday's official close, pre-earnings-reaction — expect a volatile open (see Movers). |
| PWR At zone · downswing |
Quanta Services — grid-buildout backlog machine | $672.78 vs 50-day zone $673.42 (-0.1%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $572 · sell $749–789 (informational). |
| CLS At zone · downswing |
Celestica — hyperscaler ODM compounder | $347.63 vs 50-day zone $352.27 (-1.3%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $330 · sell $450–474 (informational). |
| GOOGL At zone · downswing |
Alphabet — Search + Gemini + TPUs; still the cheapest megacap | $346.36 vs 50-day zone $354.16 (-2.2%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $331 · sell $388–409 (informational). |
| COHR At zone · downswing |
Coherent — optics and transceivers for AI clusters | $327.23 vs 50-day zone $339.14 (-3.5%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $265 · sell $418–440 (informational). |
| VRT At zone · downswing |
Vertiv — cooling + power gear for AI datacenters | $287.07 vs 50-day zone $297.50 (-3.5%) | Watch — zone holds, slope is down. No new buys. Stop $251 · sell $361–380 (informational). |
| AMD Broke zone |
AMD — Zen 6 + Helios racks, the credible #2 in accelerators | $483.01 vs 50-day zone $510.96 (-5.5%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $323 · sell $555–585 (informational). |
| RKLB Broke zone |
Rocket Lab — Neutron optionality on a real launch business | $80.10 vs 50-day zone $86.23 (-7.1%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $78 · sell $143–151 (informational). |
| MRVL Broke zone |
Marvell — custom silicon + optics for AI datacenters | $222.18 vs 50-day zone $239.69 (-7.3%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $141 · sell $313–330 (informational). |
| NOK Broke zone |
Nokia — networks + patents; deep value on AI backhaul | $10.56 vs 50-day zone $11.87 (-11.0%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. Stop $9 · sell ~$17 (informational). |
Bitcoin's overnight dip to ~$62,829 (down roughly $729 from yesterday morning). A few-hundred-dollar crypto wobble is generating routine "risk-off" chatter this morning, but it doesn't square with a record-closing S&P and easing rate-hike odds — it's noise inside BTC's own range, not a read on equity risk appetite. Don't let a crypto headline recolor how you read today's actual test case: the retail sales core print.