Monday closed essentially flat-to-down (Dow -0.31% to 53,869.37, S&P -0.07% to 7,751.86, Nasdaq -0.28% to 26,615.29) as doubts over a lasting US-Iran deal capped Friday's jobs-miss rally. Tuesday's premarket looks calm — Dow futures flat, S&P futures +0.1%, Nasdaq-100 futures +0.3-0.4% — but that calm is sitting on top of a real move: Brent has climbed roughly 2.8% to ~$88 (WTI ~$82, +2.6%) after Houthi militants claimed a second strike near Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery and Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic fell to its lowest in over two months, while the 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to 4.73% — near its highest since January — as oil-driven inflation risk creeps back into the rate debate one day before CPI. Datadog is the one loud green name in the portfolio, +11% on a wave of analyst price-target hikes clawing back last Thursday's post-earnings crater, but the rally lifted it out of its own buy zone doing it. The Buy Zone Radar narrows to 3 names (from 5 Monday) as Applied Materials breaks down into knife territory and EOG lifts above its own level on a rally of its own.
Today intensifies Monday's story rather than reversing it: oil keeps grinding higher on unresolved Hormuz talks and a second Houthi strike near a Saudi Aramco refinery, and the 10-year yield followed it up to 4.73%, close to its highest level since January. The dollar index firmed to ~99.84, recovering off Friday's two-month low, while gold slipped 0.21% to $4,381.96 and Bitcoin eased further to ~$64,000 from Friday's ~$65,100 — both consistent with investors trimming safe-haven and speculative exposure into CPI rather than piling further into it. Fed-hike pricing is mixed rather than moving in one direction: CME's FedWatch shows a 44.4% chance of a September hike (up modestly on the day), while Kalshi (33%) and Polymarket (~37% hike-equivalent) still lean toward a hold — all still well below last week's ~54-67% hike-odds peaks after Friday's jobs miss.
Mon close: Dow -0.31% (-167.56pts) → 53,869.37 · S&P -0.07% → 7,751.86 · Nasdaq -0.28% → 26,615.29 · Tue premarket: Dow fut flat · S&P fut +0.1% · Nasdaq-100 fut +0.3-0.4% · Brent ~$88 · WTI ~$82.12 · 10Y 4.73% · DXY ~99.84 · Gold ~$4,381.96 · Bitcoin ~$64,000
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| GS In zone |
Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk | $1,035 vs 50-day zone $1,055 (-1.9%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $925 · sell $1,096–1,154. |
| ASML In zone |
ASML — litho monopoly, the toll booth of Moore's Law | $1,733 vs 50-day zone $1,763 (-1.7%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $1,413 · sell $1,900–2,000. |
| NVO In zone |
Novo Nordisk — GLP-1 #2 at a discount after stumbles | $47.73 vs 50-day zone $47.00 (+1.6%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $47 · sell $61–64. |
| AMAT Broke zone · new |
Applied Materials — broadest chip-equipment franchise | $522.12 vs 50-day zone $554.56 (-5.8%) | Do nothing. Reports Thursday after close — a beat starts the reclaim conversation, a miss confirms the knife. Stop $383 · sell $703–740 (informational). |
| AMD Broke zone |
AMD — Zen 6 + Helios racks, the credible #2 in accelerators | $469.56 vs 50-day zone $513.11 (-8.5%) | Do nothing — still waiting for repair. Break deepened from Monday's -6.0% read. Stop $319 · sell $555–585 (informational). |
Bending Spoons' 15.7% pre-earnings pop. The stock is rallying purely on positioning ahead of its Q2 report Thursday — it isn't an Alpha 100 name, and a speculative run into an unreleased print is exactly the kind of move that reverses hard on any miss. There's no thesis here to chase, only a headline.