Yesterday's brief flagged that AMD's radar entry was priced off Tuesday's pre-drop close and told you to wait for the open before touching it. This morning's fetch did exactly that: AMD is $482.05, 6.3% under its 50-day zone — BROKE ZONE now, a falling knife, not a buy. It isn't alone. SanDisk beat on revenue (+372% YoY to $8.97B) and EPS and still fell 12.1% after hours on a soft sales guide; Peloton topped Q4 estimates but guided FY27 revenue to $2.3–2.4B, below Street, and dropped ~15% premarket. That's three straight sessions of beat-then-sold. Separately, SpaceX's first lockup tranche — up to 911.5M insider shares, roughly $101B — hit the float today, and the stock is down about 10%, purely a mechanical unlock, not new business news. The Buy Zone Radar itself shrank from 10 names to 6: a new slope check demoted eight more to "wait for the turn," and only EOG is a fresh entry.
Still risk-off, and oil and the Fed-pricing tape are both sending mixed signals this morning. Iran and Oman reportedly finalized a draft agreement on a Strait of Hormuz shipping route overnight — still awaiting sign-off from Iran's Supreme Leader — yet Brent traded up to ~$83.64/bbl by 7am ET Thursday (WTI ~$75.16), a jump from Wednesday's ~$80.37 close, on a fresh Houthi attack on a Saudi-linked tanker in the Red Sea. Fed pricing is genuinely noisy: some trackers still show ~82% odds of a September hike, matching Wednesday's spike, while CME's own FedWatch tool showed a much lower ~56% read by Thursday morning — a sharp pullback in a matter of hours. Wednesday's cash close was itself split: the Dow added 0.5% to a record 54,349, but the S&P 500 slipped 0.17% to 7,723.55 and the Nasdaq fell 0.83% to 26,363.44 as the beat-then-sold pattern spread from AMD and SpaceX into SanDisk.
Wed close: Dow +0.5% (+263pts) → 54,349 (record) · S&P -0.17% → 7,723.55 · Nasdaq -0.83% → 26,363.44 · Brent ~$83.64 (7am ET Thu) · WTI ~$75.16 · 10Y ~4.63% (as of 4 Aug) · DXY ~99.92 (as of 4 Aug) · Bitcoin ~$64,510
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML In zone |
ASML — litho monopoly, the toll booth of Moore's Law | $1,678 vs 50-day zone $1,756 (-4.4%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $1,402 · sell $1,900–2,000. |
| AMAT In zone |
Applied Materials — broadest chip-equipment franchise | $534.24 vs 50-day zone $549.84 (-2.8%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $378 · sell $703–740. |
| TSM In zone |
TSMC — everyone's foundry | $414.00 vs 50-day zone $425.81 (-2.8%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $359 · sell $455–479. |
| EOG In zone · new |
EOG Resources — best-in-class shale returns | $134.23 vs 50-day zone $137.36 (-2.3%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $124 · sell $144–152. |
| GS In zone |
Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk | $1,060 vs 50-day zone $1,053 (+0.7%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $921 · sell $1,096–1,154. |
| LLY In zone |
Eli Lilly — GLP-1 franchise + pipeline depth | $1,170 vs 50-day zone $1,153 (+1.5%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $1,030 · sell $1,187–1,249. |
| AMD Broke zone |
AMD — Zen 6 + Helios racks, the credible #2 in accelerators | $482.05 vs 50-day zone $514.62 (-6.3%) | Do nothing — wait for repair. If you own the first third, the -5% break was already your exit. Stop $316 · sell $555–585 (unchanged, informational). |
Headlines framing SpaceX's ~10% lockup-day drop as proof the AI/space trade is cracking. SpaceX beat revenue by over $1B and narrowed its loss just last week; today's move is a mechanical float event — up to 911.5M shares of a staggered nine-tranche unlock hit the market exactly as scheduled since the IPO, not new information about the business. Morgan Stanley itself framed the pullback as an attractive entry on "largely unchanged" fundamentals.