Trump said on Air Force One Sunday that he called off a fresh strike on Iran at the request of Gulf allies — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE — floating a framework for the "immediate, complete and total opening of the Hormuz Strait" and an end to Iran's nuclear threat, with talks due to resume today. Markets took the claim at face value: Brent crude fell to roughly $87.38 (from ~$96.78 Friday) and WTI to ~$84.67, US futures rose (Dow futures +1%, S&P futures +0.6%, Nasdaq-100 futures +0.3%), and the 10-year Treasury yield eased a touch to ~4.688%. That combination just pushed our Buy Zone Radar to its widest reading yet — 12 names in zone, up from 10 on 31 July, and a genuinely broad list spanning chips, power, financials and energy, not one sector's bounce. The catch: Iran's own negotiators are denying it. Fars news agency quotes a member of Tehran's team saying no Hormuz agreement exists, and Iran's foreign ministry says it isn't in direct talks with Washington at all. A relief rally built on a claim one side disputes is a reason to work the radar in thirds, not to swing at everything at once.
Still risk-off, and today's oil-driven relief rally hasn't moved the needle on the thing that actually defines the regime: September hike odds hold near 81% on CME FedWatch, essentially unchanged since the Fed's 9-3 hold with three hawkish dissents in July. The dollar is the more interesting tell — the DXY sits at ~99.72, down 0.19% today and on pace for its worst week in three months, even as yields ease and equities rally. Yields easing on de-escalation hopes makes sense; a weakening dollar into a "risk-on" day is less textbook, and consistent with a market that still isn't fully convinced the war premium is gone for good.
Fri close: Dow +0.53% (+276.97pts) → 52,485.03 · S&P +0.7% → 7,489.72 · Nasdaq Composite +1.0% → 25,373.85 · Premarket Mon: Dow fut +1% · S&P fut +0.6% · Nasdaq-100 fut +0.3% · Brent ~$87.38 (Fri ~$96.78) · WTI ~$84.67 (Fri ~$89.31) · 10Y ~4.688% · DXY ~99.72 · Bitcoin ~$62,707
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM In zone |
TSMC — everyone's foundry | $404.25 vs 50-day zone $425.33 (-5.0%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $357 · sell $455–479. |
| GEV In zone |
GE Vernova — gas turbines sold out for years | $990.29 vs 50-day zone $1,025 (-3.4%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $836 · sell $1,136–1,196. |
| GS In zone |
Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk | $1,018 vs 50-day zone $1,049 (-3.0%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $916 · sell $1,096–1,154. |
| NVDA In zone |
Nvidia — the AI franchise; forward multiple back at pre-boom levels | $200.75 vs 50-day zone $206.17 (-2.6%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $193 · sell $225–237. |
| SLB In zone |
SLB — oil services cycle, international tilt | $49.59 vs 50-day zone $50.85 (-2.5%) | Buy in thirds. Today's oil pullback is a pause on a disputed claim, not a thesis break. Stop $47 · sell $56–59. |
| PWR In zone |
Quanta Services — grid-buildout backlog machine | $667.36 vs 50-day zone $681.09 (-2.0%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $561 · sell $749–789. |
| AVGO In zone |
Broadcom — custom AI silicon + software; expensive for a reason | $389.28 vs 50-day zone $395.31 (-1.5%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $366 · sell $470–495. |
| FCX In zone |
Freeport-McMoRan — copper is the electrification bottleneck | $62.63 vs 50-day zone $63.59 (-1.5%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $57 · sell $69–72. |
| GOOGL In zone |
Alphabet — search + Gemini + TPUs; still the cheapest megacap | $356.13 vs 50-day zone $358.74 (-0.7%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $326 · sell $388–409. |
| LLY In zone |
Eli Lilly — GLP-1 franchise + pipeline depth | $1,149 vs 50-day zone $1,147 (+0.1%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $1,025 · sell $1,187–1,249. |
| NVO In zone |
Novo Nordisk — GLP-1 #2 at a discount after stumbles | $47.08 vs 50-day zone $46.84 (+0.5%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $47 · sell $61–64. |
| DELL In zone |
Dell — AI-server share at a value multiple | $405.37 vs 50-day zone $398.99 (+1.6%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $214 · sell $446–469. |
Headlines reading Atkore's 27% pop as proof the "risk-on everything" trade is back. Prysmian's $3.8 billion all-cash buyout of the electrical-conduit maker at $95/share is real news for Atkore holders, but it's a single, sector-specific consolidation deal, not a broad private-equity-is-back signal — nothing in the Alpha 100 sits anywhere near electrical conduits.