Thursday's core PCE cooled to 3.3% year-over-year (0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.2% forecast) and jobless claims held low at 197k, even as Q2 GDP undershot at 1.5% against a 2.1% forecast — enough combined relief to send the Dow up 1.2%, the S&P 500 up 1.7% and the Nasdaq Composite up 2.8%, its best session in weeks. Then Amazon and Apple split the AI-capex story wide open after the close: AWS grew 37% year-over-year — its fastest pace in 18 quarters — and Andy Jassy raised 2026 capex guidance to $220 billion, sending Amazon up as much as 12% in Friday's premarket. Apple beat on both revenue and EPS but guided the September quarter below Wall Street's number, blaming an AI-driven chip and memory shortage for constraining iPhone and Mac production — not weak demand — and fell 7.3% premarket, erasing roughly $390 billion in value. Neither is worth chasing at the open: Amazon's move already runs past our Buy Zone entry level, and Apple's drop is a guidance problem to let settle, not a dip to buy blind.
Still risk-off, and still waiting for the geopolitical premium to clear. Wednesday's Fed hold carries three hawkish dissents, and September hike odds sit near 80% on CME FedWatch — effectively unchanged from the post-Fed spike, despite Thursday's cooler core PCE print arguing the other way. Oil is the swing factor: Brent broke above $100 a barrel Thursday, its first close above that level since May, after Houthi forces hit two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and a drone struck a gas ship at Egypt's Damietta port — then eased back to roughly $96.78 Friday (WTI ~$89.31) on hopes of renewed Oman-mediated talks; Iran says no direct US channel is currently open. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to ~4.67-4.68% after touching its highest level since January 2025 on Thursday.
Thu close: Dow +1.2% (+613.92pts) → 52,208.06 · S&P +1.7% → 7,437.64 · Nasdaq Composite +2.8% → 25,122.18 · Premarket Fri: S&P fut +0.47% · Nasdaq-100 fut +1.11% · Dow fut +0.53% (+280pts) · Brent ~$96.78 (Thu peak >$100) · WTI ~$89.31 · 10Y ~4.67-4.68% · Bitcoin ~$64,300
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN Gapped · earnings |
Amazon — AWS reacceleration + retail margin lever | $235.50 (Thu close) vs 50-day zone $246.38 — up ~12% premarket on the AWS beat, implying ~$264, just under our own sell range | Don't chase. This move already prices Amazon near our $265–279 trim range. Stop $235 · sell $265–279. |
| GEV In zone |
GE Vernova — gas turbines sold out for years | $981.98 vs 50-day zone $1,025 (-4.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $835 · sell $1,136–1,196. |
| SLB In zone |
SLB — oil services cycle, international tilt | $48.91 vs 50-day zone $50.99 (-4.1%) | Buy in thirds. Today's oil pullback is a pause, not a thesis break. Stop $47 · sell $56–59. |
| ETN Watch · gapped on earnings |
Eaton — electrification of everything | $408.00 premarket (beat + raised FY guide) vs 50-day zone $402.57 (+1.3%, just through) | No chase. Zone thesis just got a real beat-and-raise behind it — alert back at $402.57 if it cools. Stop $374 · sell $415–437. |
| PWR In zone |
Quanta Services — grid-buildout backlog machine | $657.98 vs 50-day zone $682.02 (-3.5%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $560 · sell $749–789. |
| CLS In zone |
Celestica — hyperscaler ODM compounder | $352.59 vs 50-day zone $360.67 (-2.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $327 · sell $450–474. |
| GS In zone |
Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk | $1,025 vs 50-day zone $1,048 (-2.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $915 · sell $1,096–1,154. |
| AVGO In zone |
Broadcom — custom AI silicon + software; expensive for a reason | $387.84 vs 50-day zone $395.74 (-2.0%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $366 · sell $470–495. |
| FCX In zone |
Freeport-McMoRan — copper is the electrification bottleneck | $63.44 vs 50-day zone $63.51 (-0.1%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $57 · sell $69–72. |
| LLY In zone |
Eli Lilly — GLP-1 franchise + pipeline depth | $1,155 vs 50-day zone $1,145 (+0.9%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $1,023 · sell $1,187–1,249. |
Headlines reading Coinbase's post-earnings drop as "crypto is over." Coinbase missed on revenue ($1.2B vs. ~$1.35B expected) and posted a wider-than-expected loss, with stablecoin revenue down year-over-year — its third straight quarterly miss — and fell about 6.5% after hours Thursday. That's a company-specific execution problem, not a crypto-demand signal: Bitcoin itself sits at roughly $64,300, little changed from Thursday, even as equities post their best session in weeks.