Two verdicts land tonight, roughly two hours apart: the FOMC rate decision at 19:00 Dublin, then Microsoft and Meta report after the US close. Futures are barely moving — S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq-100 +0.3%, Dow −0.2% — because nothing priced this morning survives either event. Oil just reversed back up over 3% on fresh Iran–US friction, the same kind of move that's pushed CME's hike odds from 10.7% to 38% in two weeks. And MSFT/META both carry ~95% "beat" odds already priced in — the real risk is the same capex trap that cost GOOGL −7.4% and TSLA −14.5% two weeks ago on good numbers. Nothing here is worth a new position before 21:00.
Still risk-off, and today decides whether it deepens or eases. Oil snapped back Brent +3.2% to ~$86.80, WTI +3.4% to ~$81.95 overnight as the fragile US–Iran pause looked shakier — Trump has said strikes resume without a real deal, and fewer than 10 commercial vessels a day are transiting the Strait of Hormuz versus roughly 100 before the war. That's the same inflation input that's driven the Fed's hike odds from 10.7% two weeks ago to 38% today (CME FedWatch, hold priced at 62%). Separately, the chip complex is sliding toward a real correction: the Nasdaq-100 is off ~1.8% intraday and nearing 10% down from its high, with SOXX down 12.9% over the last two sessions.
Tue close: Dow +537pts (+1.03%) → 52,747.32 · S&P +0.21% → 7,428.78 · Nasdaq Composite −0.22% → 24,876.91 · Premarket: S&P fut +0.2% · Nasdaq-100 fut +0.3% · Dow fut −0.2% · Brent ~$86.80 (+3.2%) · WTI ~$81.95 (+3.4%) · 10Y ~4.64% · DXY ~101.3 · Bitcoin ~$63,900
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETN In zone |
Eaton — electrification of everything | $386.26 vs 50-day zone $403.22 (−4.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $374 · sell $415–437. |
| AVGO In zone |
Broadcom — custom AI silicon + software; expensive for a reason | $380.91 vs 50-day zone $397.50 (−4.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $365 · sell $470–495. |
| CLS In zone |
Celestica — hyperscaler ODM compounder | $350.20 vs 50-day zone $361.07 (−3.0%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $326 · sell $450–474. |
| FCX In zone |
Freeport-McMoRan — copper is the electrification bottleneck | $61.64 vs 50-day zone $63.51 (−2.9%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $57 · sell $69–72. |
| SLB In zone |
SLB — oil services cycle, international tilt; thesis tagged "war premium" | $49.98 vs 50-day zone $51.29 (−2.5%) | Buy in thirds. Tonight's oil reversal is validating the thesis, not deflating it. Stop $47 · sell $56–59. |
| GS In zone |
Goldman Sachs — capital-markets thaw + rates desk | $1,033 vs 50-day zone $1,045 (−1.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $913 · sell $1,096–1,154. |
| FANG In zone |
Diamondback — Permian consolidator | $190.31 vs 50-day zone $192.09 (−0.9%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $173 · sell $204–215. |
| COP In zone |
ConocoPhillips — lead pick: low-cost barrels, war-premium tailwind | $114.10 vs 50-day zone $113.90 (+0.2%, essentially on it) | Buy in thirds. Stop $107 · sell $129–136. |
| DELL In zone |
Dell — AI-server share at a value multiple | $392.10 vs 50-day zone $389.70 (+0.6%, essentially on it) | Buy in thirds. Stop $211 · sell $446–469. |
| EOG In zone |
EOG Resources — best-in-class shale returns | $139.64 vs 50-day zone $137.10 (+1.9%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $123 · sell $144–152. |
The 79%-hold / 20%-hike numbers some retail prediction markets are citing today. Those figures are running well behind the professional gauge — CME FedWatch, built on real Fed funds futures pricing, has hold at 62% and hike at 38% as of this morning, a spread that's moved fast over the last two weeks as oil climbed. A slower-moving retail market isn't a more optimistic read; it's a stale one.