Futures are ripping this morning — Dow futures +1%, S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq-100 +1.4% — after the US and Iran quietly paused a 13-day exchange of strikes over the weekend. Brent crude fell as much as 7.4% to below $90 (from over $100 a week ago) on hopes the cease-fire holds, and the dollar has pulled back from Thursday's one-month high near 101.5 as the war-premium bid unwinds. That's a real, tradeable relief valve — but nothing about Wednesday's Fed decision or the MSFT/META/AAPL/AMZN capex verdicts changed over the weekend. A 48-hour pause between two sides that were shooting at each other on Friday doesn't undo four straight days of "beat and get punished anyway." Take the bounce in names already in zone if it fits your plan; don't mistake a cease-fire for an all-clear.
Still nominally risk-off, but the inputs eased over the weekend for the first time in two weeks. The US has held off further strikes on Iran since late Friday, and Tehran's army says it has suspended its responses too — Brent's ~7% slide back under $90 is the market pricing that as real, at least for now. The dollar index has slipped to roughly 101.2–101.3 from Thursday's one-month high of 101.5, and the 10-year, which touched an 18-month high near 4.69% this week on the war premium, is the number to watch next: a genuine reversal there is the tell that this isn't just a weekend pause. Fed-hike odds for Wednesday sat at roughly 38% hike / 61% hold as of Friday — before this weekend's de-escalation — so there's real room for that number to soften into the meeting if the cease-fire holds through Tuesday.
Futures: Dow +1.0% · S&P 500 +0.9% · Nasdaq-100 +1.4% · Russell 2000 +1.3% · Brent crude ~$88–90 (−7.4% intraday) · 10Y ~4.67% · DXY ~101.2 · Bitcoin ~$65,300
| Name | Status | Level & anchor | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO In zone |
Broadcom — custom AI silicon + software; expensive for a reason | $381.92 vs 50-day zone $400.09 (−4.5%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $365 · sell $470–495. |
| GEV In zone |
GE Vernova — gas turbines sold out for years | $1,015 vs 50-day zone $1,034 (−1.9%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $826 · sell $1,136–1,196. |
| FCX In zone |
Freeport-McMoRan — copper is the electrification bottleneck | $62.60 vs 50-day zone $63.76 (−1.8%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $56 · sell $69–72. |
| NVDA In zone |
Nvidia — the AI franchise; forward multiple back near pre-boom levels | $206.84 vs 50-day zone $209.46 (−1.3%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $193 · sell $225–237. |
| ETN In zone |
Eaton — electrification of everything | $404.07 vs 50-day zone $403.77 (+0.1%, essentially on it) | Buy in thirds. Stop $374 · sell $415–437. |
| AMAT In zone |
Applied Materials — broadest chip-equipment franchise | $536.25 vs 50-day zone $535.38 (+0.2%, essentially on it) | Buy in thirds. Stop $365 · sell $703–740. |
| ASML In zone |
ASML — litho monopoly; the toll booth of Moore's Law | $1,757 vs 50-day zone $1,737 (+1.2%) | Buy in thirds. Stop $1,373 · sell $1,900–2,000. |
| SLB In zone |
SLB — oil services cycle, international tilt; thesis tagged "war premium" | $52.42 vs 50-day zone $51.54 (+1.7%) | Watch, don't chase. The exact premium in its own thesis tag is what's deflating this morning — let the price react to the oil move before adding. Stop $46 · sell $56–59. |
"The Middle East war is over" headlines. A 13-day strike campaign pausing over a weekend is genuine relief, but it's a pause, not a peace deal — the US hasn't withdrawn anything and Iran has only "suspended" its responses, both reversible by tomorrow morning. A Houthi claim of a fresh strike on Saudi Aramco facilities over the weekend (unconfirmed by Riyadh) is exactly the kind of incident that could snap the whole thing back.